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Agradezco de antemano su atención a la presente. But excluding the volatile transportation category, orders rose 1. Defense spending on capital goods was up sharply.
Orders for computers and electronics climbed, but demand for machinery, primary metals, and autos fell. A closely watched measure of business spending—orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—climbed 1. Orders in that category have climbed for two of the last three months, though from a year earlier they were down 1. Going sideways lately Chart from Doug Short. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a more-reliable indicator because it smoothes out week-to-week gyrations, held steady last week at , Very interesting post from Ed Yardeni: Consumers Seeing More Jobs.
The present situation component of the Consumer Confidence Index CCI rose to a new cyclical high this month, exceeding the expectations component for the first time during the current economic expansion.
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In some ways, the CCI survey may provide a clearer picture of this market than the cacophony of data provided each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its employment report. The picture continues to get brighter:.
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The former jumped to That may not seem like much, but it is the best reading since June The percentage of respondents agreeing that jobs are hard to get fell to There is even a better correlation between the official unemployment rate and the jobs-hard-to-get series. We all know that the unemployment rate has dropped during the current economic expansion, mostly because of a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate. If people are dropping out because they are discouraged by the lack of jobs, then the jobs-hard-to-get series should not be falling in lock-step with the unemployment rate.
But it is suggesting that labor market conditions really are improving and that other factors are behind the falling participation rate. It was the third consecutive quarter of growth. An increase in lending would spur additional home construction and possibly put downward pressure on prices, which have been rising rapidly over the past two years and weighing on the housing recovery.
Last year, the average price of a new U. While the rising prices are great news for sellers, the tight supply of homes has priced many would-be buyers out of the market. Even before the FDIC issued its latest data, companies that build homes had noted a change in sentiment from lenders. The FDIC has tracked that measure only since Bankers say they are opening their doors a little wider to construction in part because borrowing by companies in other sectors has been weak. Particularly difficult to obtain are loans for land acquisition and development, which entails installing infrastructure such as roads and utilities—endeavors that lenders consider more risky than home construction.
Smaller, cash-strapped builders still face a challenge in landing loans. The latest figure, published on Wednesday by the labour ministry, brings the total number of unemployed to a record 3. The total number of those seeking a full-time job, including those in part-time work, reached 4.
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On Wednesday, Michel Sapin, the labour minister, seized on that fact as a sign of changing fortunes. It has also intervened in the currency market by directing state-owned Chinese banks to buy dollars, according to traders. That has helped further push up the price of the dollar against the yuan. A weaker yuan could also help exporters, whose goods would be cheaper in the U.
The PBOC decided to tamp down expectations for one-way appreciation in the yuan and curb speculative trading during a two-day currency-policy meeting that ended Feb. By making the currency more of a two-way bet, officials hope to relieve the pressure for it to rise and ease the way to widen the trading band, according to the people with knowledge of the thinking. The seemingly incessant strengthening trend of the Chinese Yuan much as with the seemingly inexorable rise of US equities or home prices has encouraged huge amounts of structured products to be created over the past few years enabling traders to position for more of the same in increasingly levered ways.
That was all going great until the last few weeks which has seen China enter the currency wars as we explained here. Consumption, one of the major drivers of the economy in recent years, picked up pace in the fourth quarter. Household consumption expanded by 0. Investment in totaled The Case-Shiller index that measures home prices in 20 major metro areas rose Prices rebounded strongly during the past two years as low prices and rates attracted brisk demand, first from investors and later from traditional buyers who competed over a shrinking supply.
Higher prices have led investors to slow their purchases in more markets, while rising rates have dented affordability for owners who need a mortgage, especially first-time buyers. Sales tend to slow in the winter, which can lead to softer prices, but the monthly declines during the fourth quarter were still the smallest for that period in eight years. Home builders during the past year have boosted profits by building more-expensive homes. Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. But those price gains appear to be curbing sales volumes.
National builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. From housing economist Tom Lawler via CalculatedRisk. Home deliveries last quarter totaled , up Here are a few excerpts from the conference call. While it is still too early to draw conclusions about the Spring selling season, we remain optimistic based on solid affordability, attractive interest rates, growing pent-up demand and an industry still under-producing compared to both historical norms and current demographics.